Japan’s general insurance sector is forecast to reach JPY14.5 trillion (US$102.6 billion) in gross written premiums (GWP) by 2030, according to projections from GlobalData.
The industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from JPY12.5 trillion (US$85.4 billion) in 2025.
GlobalData’s latest figures indicate that the market will see a 3.7% annual increase in 2025, supported by a rebound in motor insurance demand, higher catastrophe-related losses, premium adjustments, and ongoing digital transformation.
Motor, property, and liability insurance are set to account for the majority of the market, representing 82.7% of total GWP in 2025.
Motor insurance alone is projected to make up 46% of the segment, maintaining its position as the largest contributor.
After experiencing a period of contraction between 2021 and 2023, the motor insurance segment rebounded in 2024, buoyed by increased premium rates and a recovery in vehicle sales.
The General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan (GIROJ) anticipates that motor insurance premiums will rise between 5% and 8% in 2025.
The implementation of a model-specific rate class system, effective January 2025, will further influence the sector. This system will categorise vehicles into 17 risk-based classes, allowing insurers to refine pricing strategies.
Swarup Kumar Sahoo, senior insurance analyst at GlobalData, said higher premiums for motor and property insurance are expected to be the main contributors to growth in 2025.
“Insurance premiums have been revised five times in the past decade. Frequent occurrence of natural disasters and rising fraudulent claims are some of the factors that have led to the increase in premium rates,” he said.
A revised Insurance Business Act, passed in May 2025 and set to take effect by May 2026, represents the first major regulatory overhaul since 2014. The update aims to address market irregularities and fraud, with Sahoo noting that these changes are expected to enhance consumer confidence and reduce insurer losses.
Property insurance is projected to be the second-largest line of business, accounting for 27.8% of GWP in 2025. The segment’s growth is linked to premium increases and repeated natural disasters, including floods, typhoons, earthquakes, and hailstorms.
The General Insurance Association of Japan (GIAJ) reported that the Noto Peninsula earthquake and Hyogo Prefecture hailstorms resulted in combined losses exceeding $1.6 billion in 2024.
Fire insurance premiums are forecast to rise by 30% to 35% in 2025, according to the Voluntary Sale Fair Association. With fire insurance being mandatory for mortgaged households, this increase is expected to further support property insurance growth through 2030.
Liability insurance is expected to represent 8.9% of the market in 2025 and is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 4.4% through 2030. The segment is experiencing growth due to increased ransomware incidents and heightened demand for directors’ and officers’ (D&O) liability coverage.
Cyber insurance, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises, is also seeing rapid uptake.
Other lines, including personal accident and health, financial, and marine, aviation, and transit insurance, are expected to comprise the remaining 17.3% of the market.
Japan’s general insurance market is positioned for continued expansion, supported by frequent natural disasters, ongoing rate increases in key segments, and regulatory reforms.
Sahoo said: “The expansion in the economy, a decrease in inflation rate, and termination of the negative interest rate policy are expected to further support the growth of general insurance during 2025-30.”
Meanwhile, Japan’s life insurance industry is projected to reach JPY50 trillion (US$371.2 billion) in direct written premiums by 2029, according to GlobalData.
Swetansha Chauhan, insurance analyst at GlobalData, noted that the industry recorded 9% growth in 2023, driven by increased demand for yen-denominated single-premium products.
