India’s crop insurance schemes are under strain as extreme weather events and localized risks continue to challenge pricing and loss forecasting. To address this, JBA Risk Management has rolled out a new version of its India crop catastrophe model to give insurers a clearer picture of potential losses per crop and region.
Nicole Chin, product lead at JBA Risk Management, said the update is meant to “bring our model in line with the realities of India’s crop insurance market, providing more detailed insights at the district and crop level, across both Kharif and Rabi seasons.”
The model uses crop simulations through the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), a method that mimics how different crops grow under various weather conditions. By doing so, it helps insurers estimate yields and losses more realistically compared to models that rely only on past averages.
Chin said that “retaining DSSAT within its physical modelling framework not only strengthens the realism of our loss calculations but also provides insurers with a valuable tool, particularly as DSSAT is now recognised as an approved method for validation.”
The updated version now covers 69 crop types across India’s two main planting seasons. JBA said it has tested the model against recent insurance data, showing capped loss ratios averaging 93%. In states such as Assam and Haryana, which are not part of certain protective schemes, loss ratios were projected to exceed 100%.
Alongside the model, JBA has added tools to help insurers interpret results in states using cup-and-cap arrangements. Its Singapore team will also provide support for applying the simulations to specific portfolios. Chin said these enhancements give clients “greater understanding and confidence in their decision-making.”
JBA first introduced its India crop model in 2018, following reforms to the government-sponsored Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY). With the latest updates, the company said the model now captures 94% of the physical crop insurance market and 86% of the parametric market by sum insured as of 2022-23.
